Probability is calculated using mean and deviation with the following formula applayed over all pricing data from day one for the chosen digital currency:
Where mean is μ, standard deviation is δ and using the standard z-score.
Type amount in USD, choose digital currency and press the button to get short term probability for the chosen currency to get under and over the entered amount
Fair Risk Price :
Actual price that give closest to 50%/50% probability for up/down